Should farming intensify while wealthier nations consume less?

Assess whether pairing higher farm yields with lower food consumption in developed and emerging nations is the best route to sustainable food systems.

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State the question, from 100 essential questions for the future of agriculture

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	1	+# Should farming intensify while wealthier nations consume less?
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	3	+Feeding a growing and richer world without clearing more land or breaching environmental limits could come from producing more per hectare, from consuming less, or from both. Is the combined strategy the advisable one?
	4	+
	5	+## Question
	6	+
	7	+To address the current challenges of agri-food systems, is it advisable to combine farming intensification (higher yields on existing farmland) with lower food consumption levels in developed and emerging nations, for example through less waste and less resource-intensive diets? The question compares the combined strategy's environmental, nutritional and economic effects with either lever alone.
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	9	+## Background
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	11	+It is one of two questions in the theme "transforming agri-food systems" of the 100 essential questions for the future of agriculture, compiled from 419 questions submitted worldwide in 2022 and rated by 19 experts [1]. The authors stress that solving one problem without worsening others is hard: a policy that lowers food prices, for example, may hurt smallholder farmers [1].
	12	+
	13	+## What is known
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	15	+- Crop demand tracks income and is forecast to rise by 100–110% from 2005 to 2050. Meeting it by moderate intensification of under-yielding cropland would clear about 0.2 billion hectares and emit about 1 Gt of CO₂-carbon equivalent a year by 2050, against about 1 billion hectares and 3 Gt a year if current trends continue [2].
	16	+- Even if yield gaps are closed, projected demand would still drive agricultural expansion; improved diets and less food waste are essential to cut emissions and secure food supply in 2050 [3].
	17	+- Without new technology and mitigation, the environmental effects of the food system could grow by 50–90% between 2010 and 2050; no single measure keeps them within all planetary boundaries, and a combination of healthier, more plant-based diets, better technology and management, and less food loss and waste is needed [4].
	18	+- Even if fossil-fuel emissions stopped immediately, current trends in food systems would prevent meeting the 1.5 °C target and threaten the 2 °C target by the end of the century [5].
	19	+
	20	+## What would count as progress
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	22	+No single result settles a question like this; contributions like these would move it forward:
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	24	+- Model comparisons of intensification-only, demand-reduction-only and combined scenarios for specific countries, with shared, published assumptions.
	25	+- Empirical studies of rebound effects: whether higher yields actually spare land, and whether lower consumption in one region reduces production or merely shifts it elsewhere through trade.
	26	+- Analyses of who gains and who loses under each strategy, including farm incomes and food prices for poor consumers.
	27	+
	28	+## References
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	30	+1. Hu, Y. et al. (2023). [100 essential questions for the future of agriculture](https://doi.org/10.1002/moda.5). Modern Agriculture 1(1), 4–12.
	31	+2. Tilman, D. et al. (2011). [Global food demand and the sustainable intensification of agriculture](https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1116437108). Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 108(50), 20260–20264.
	32	+3. Bajželj, B. et al. (2014). [Importance of food-demand management for climate mitigation](https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2353). Nature Climate Change 4(10), 924–929.
	33	+4. Springmann, M. et al. (2018). [Options for keeping the food system within environmental limits](https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0594-0). Nature 562(7728), 519–525.
	34	+5. Clark, M. A. et al. (2020). [Global food system emissions could preclude achieving the 1.5° and 2°C climate change targets](https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aba7357). Science 370(6517), 705–708.
	35	+
	36	+## Source
	37	+
	38	+Imported from [100 essential questions for the future of agriculture, question 2](https://doi.org/10.1002/moda.5), curated by Hu et al. Listed as open in the source (2023) and still an active research question as of 2026-10-20. The statement above is written in our own words; see the source for the original wording, history and discussion.